Deficits, Democracy, & the Road to Recovery

Event Outline | Full PDFs & Synopsis of White Papers | Author Bios

 Outline of Event's Proceedings:
1. Distinguished Political Scientist Walter Dean Burnham covered findings from his Roosevelt White Paper on the implications of the midterm elections for policy change in 2011, 2012 and beyond.

2. Roosevelt Senior Fellows Thomas Ferguson and Rob Johnson shared results from a cross-national study that dispels some of the most blatant "deficit myths."

3. Roosevelt Chief Economist Joseph Stiglitz discussed the findings from his new Roosevelt White Paper on the principles and guidelines for deficit reduction.

The morning concluded with a discussion of how to move forward and reignite the American economy.

PDFS & Synopsis of White Papers:

The Roosevelt Institute sits at the center of crucial economic debates on the deficit, the unemployment crisis, money & politics, and more. Today we are proud to present three new Working Papers that analyze the current economic and political crises we face and propose ideas and policies to lead us forward.
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Democracy in Peril: The American Turnout Problem and the Path to Plutocracy
by Walter Dean Burnham
 
American turnout patterns are analyzed through comparisons with other countries and considerations of changes over time. The paper examines the effect of the New Deal on voter turnout, and, using Census data, considers how factors such as ethnicity and social class have influenced voter mobilization and demobilization, especially as the New Deal coalition has ebbed. It considers whether recent trends indicate an emerging crisis.
 
Key findings:
·      US voter turnout patterns stand out in comparison to other advanced societies.
·      The US locally centered system of election administration makes voting very difficult by international standards.
·      The New Deal mobilized millions of new voters, but as the New Deal waned, voter turnout fell sharply.
·      Big money and low turnout are a lethal combination for a democracy.
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A World Upside Down? Deficit Fantasies in the Great Recession
by Thomas Ferguson and Rob Johnson
 
This paper demonstrates that the current hysteria over deficits in the US is unjustified. Markets for even long term US government debt are strong.
 
Key findings:
·      Claims that economic growth falls off at anywhere near current US levels of debt–to-GDP are untrue. Neither is it the case that cutting deficits magically stimulates the economy.  And stories about 90% limits are untrue.
·      The CBO August 2010 budget revision implies that the U.S. is less endangered than most analysts claim.
·      Private oligopolies in health and defense spending along with the possibility of another banking crisis are the real threats to the deficit, not entitlements.
·      Social Security is in essentially no danger for decades and does not require any fix.
·      It would be easy to stimulate the economy with a program of public investment that would substantially reduce public debts in the long run.
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Principles and Guidelines for Deficit Reduction
by Joseph Stiglitz
 
This paper outlines proposals which should reduce the deficit by more than the goal of $4 trillion, increase growth, reduce the deficit/GDP ratio, and put the country on a more sustainable path. It offers an enunciated set of criteria against which we can judge the framework of shared sacrifice proposed by the Fiscal Commission.
 
Key findings:
·      Deficit reduction is not an end in itself, but a means to other objectives.
·      Spending that increases debt but simultaneously (over the long run) increases GDP can lower the debt-GDP ratio.
·      Proposals from the Fiscal Commission may lead to a less progressive tax system and a more divided society.
·      Deficit reduction goals must not be achieved on the backs of the less politically powerful or sacrifice the national interest to special interest groups.
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Author Bios:

Thomas Ferguson | Rob Johnson | Joseph Stiglitz

Walter Dean Burnham is best known for his work on the dynamics of American electoral politics.  His chief areas of focus include the causes, characteristics and consequences of critical realignments in American history, and the modern-day decay of partisan linkages between rulers and the ruled. Much of his recent work has concentrated on the "turnout problem" and its relationship to other elements of change in American politics. Dr. Burnham is currently Professor Emeritus, Frank C. Erwin, Jr. Centennial Chair in State Government at the University of Texas.  Previously he was the Ruth and Arthur Sloan Professor of Political Science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He received his A.B. from Johns Hopkins University, as well as an A.M. and a Ph.D. from Harvard University.